The inflection point of the three most popular pro

2022-09-21
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Chenming Paper: the inflection point of the production performance of the three major projects will now be

the gross profit margin of the company in the second quarter will decline year on year and rise month on month: at present, the production and operation of the company is normal and the production and sales are stable. In terms of the trend of raw materials, the prices of raw materials such as wood pulp, wood chips and waste paper are generally hovering at a high level. It is expected that the gross profit margin will decline in the second quarter of 2011 compared with the second quarter of 2010; However, in terms of the price trend of paper varieties, the company has raised the prices of major paper varieties since February, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan/ton for coated paper, 100 yuan/ton for box board paper and 200 yuan/ton for white cardboard paper respectively. Due to the lagging effect of the product price increase, the price increase effect can be seen in the second quarter, and it is expected that the gross profit margin in the second quarter of 2011 will be slightly stronger than that in the first quarter of 2011

the market boom in the second half of the year will be less than 10 years: looking forward to the second half of 2011, due to the impact of domestic macro tightening, there will be no large or sudden growth in demand, and the boom is even weaker than that in 2010. In terms of paper types, due to the excessive release of production capacity of coated paper in the second half of the year (including the 800000 tons of coated paper newly put into production by the company) and the EU's imposition of double anti tariffs on Chinese coated paper, China's annual export of 200000 tons of coated paper to the EU will inevitably be transferred to the domestic market, and coated paper may further deteriorate. On the whole, except for white cardboard, the gross profit level of most products of the company is in danger of declining, and paper is the worst

the commissioning of the three new projects will increase huge costs: from the perspective of the company's production capacity, the three projects were officially put into operation in May, including the annual output of 800000 tons of high-grade low weight coated paper project, the annual output of 450000 tons of high-grade cultural paper project, the supporting Zhanjiang 700000 tons of bleached sulphonate wood pulp project, and the annual output of 60000 tons of high-grade household paper project. In the trial production period of at least 3 months, due to the uncertainty of machine running in, new paper quality and capacity release of no more than 4 pages, the company's new product cost loss in the third quarter is expected to reach about 1.8 billion. Whether the new production capacity in the fourth quarter reached production capacity? It is suggested to link the industrial extension with the development of new energy vehicle industry to plan for sales balance, which also has certain risks. Therefore, the company's profit may be weaker than that in 2010

the decline in cotton prices has weakened the profitability of dissolved pulp: cotton prices have continued to decline since the end of April, resulting in the downstream demand for dissolved pulp. Improving the energy efficiency of the plastic granulator process and preventing and controlling environmental pollution are complementary, and the enthusiasm has suddenly cooled. The selling price of dissolved pulp has dropped from 19000 yuan/ton in February to 14000 yuan/ton at the end of April, while the downstream cotton mills and cloth mills are still waiting. The net profit of 80000 tons of dissolved pulp of the company has decreased, and is currently about 3000 yuan/ton, which will have a slight impact on the performance of 11 years

at present, the production capacity of the company's self-made raw materials or various pulps is about 2.6 million tons, including 700000 tons of chemical pulps put into production in Zhanjiang. In 11 years, the company's various pulps will total 3.3 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of about 70%. In the remaining 30% of outsourcing, more than 70% are imported. In 2010, the total cost of importing wood pulp, wood chips and waste paper was more than 4billion yuan. If the RMB appreciated by 5% this year, the company could save about 100million yuan

due to the current general market boom and the large cost of trial production of the company's new projects, it is expected that the company's performance in 11 years may be lower than that in 10 years. But in the long run, the inflection point of the company's performance will appear in the second quarter of 2012

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